MGIC Investment’s first quarter was met with a negative market reaction, as revenue declined year over year and fell short of analyst expectations. Management pointed to subdued mortgage insurance market growth, with refinances providing a modest boost but offset by persistency trends and a relatively flat insurance in force. CEO Timothy James Mattke highlighted, “We wrote $14 billion of new insurance in the first quarter, an increase of 41% from last year,” attributing the uptick to higher refinance activity and a slightly larger purchase market. However, ongoing market constraints and normalization in delinquency trends limited topline growth.
Is now the time to buy MTG? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
MGIC Investment (MTG) Q1 CY2026 Highlights:
- Revenue: $297.1 million vs analyst estimates of $300 million (3% year-on-year decline, 1% miss)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.76 vs analyst estimates of $0.74 (2.4% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $214.2 million (72.1% margin, 12.7% year-on-year decline)
- Operating Margin: 69.6%, down from 76.6% in the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $5.55 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From MGIC Investment’s Q1 Earnings Call
- Terry Ma (Barclays) asked about the unusual uptick in delinquency rates and if reporting timing by servicers was a factor. CFO Nathaniel Howe Colson explained that timing differences did influence the numbers, but underlying cure rates remain strong.
- Terry Ma (Barclays) followed up on whether roll rates and energy prices could affect borrower performance. Colson noted that macroeconomic headwinds are monitored, but interest rates drive borrower behavior more than energy prices.
- Bose Thomas George (KBW) questioned the sustainability of the elevated capital return ratio and the impact of AOCI on payout decisions. CEO Timothy James Mattke clarified that AOCI is not a driver in capital return strategy, focusing instead on statutory and PMIERs metrics.
- Mihir Bhatia (Bank of America) asked where delinquency rates may stabilize and how portfolio age affects future trends. Colson responded that gradual normalization is expected, but overall credit remains healthy given the vintage mix.
- Mihir Bhatia (Bank of America) inquired about persistency rates amid higher refinance shares of NIW. Colson said persistency could trend lower if refinance activity remains high, but expects moderation as rates stabilize.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In upcoming quarters, the StockStory team will closely monitor (1) the pace and sustainability of new insurance written as interest rate conditions evolve, (2) any further normalization in delinquency rates or changes in cure trends that could impact reserve development, and (3) management’s commitment to disciplined capital return and expense control amid persistent macroeconomic uncertainty. The implementation of new credit score models and the resulting effects on origination volumes will also be key areas of focus.
MGIC Investment currently trades at $26.32, down from $29.13 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free).
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