2 Reasons to Avoid WU and 1 Stock to Buy Instead

via StockStory

WU Cover Image

Over the past six months, Western Union has been a great trade. While the S&P 500 was flat, the stock price has climbed by 13.5% to $9.20 per share. This performance may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.

Is there a buying opportunity in Western Union, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Get the full breakdown from our expert analysts, it’s free.

Why Do We Think Western Union Will Underperform?

We’re happy investors have made money, but we're swiping left on Western Union for now. Here are two reasons you should be careful with WU and a stock we'd rather own.

1. Revenue Spiraling Downwards

A company’s long-term sales performance can indicate its overall quality. Even a bad business can shine for one or two quarters, but a top-tier one grows for years.

Western Union’s demand was weak over the last five years as its revenue fell at a 2.9% annual rate. This wasn’t a great result and is a sign of poor business quality.

Western Union Quarterly Revenue

2. EPS Trending Down

Analyzing the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) shows whether a company's incremental sales were profitable – for example, revenue could be inflated through excessive spending on advertising and promotions.

Sadly for Western Union, its EPS and revenue declined by 1.3% and 2.9% annually over the last five years. We tend to steer our readers away from companies with falling revenue and EPS, where diminishing earnings could imply changing secular trends and preferences. If the tide turns unexpectedly, Western Union’s low margin of safety could leave its stock price susceptible to large downswings.

Western Union Trailing 12-Month EPS (Non-GAAP)

Final Judgment

We see the value of companies driving economic growth, but in the case of Western Union, we’re out. With its shares outperforming the market lately, the stock trades at 5× forward P/E (or $9.20 per share). While this valuation is optically cheap, the potential downside is huge given its shaky fundamentals. There are better stocks to buy right now. We’d recommend looking at a dominant Aerospace business that has perfected its M&A strategy.

Stocks We Like More Than Western Union

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